Over the past year, there has been a significant jump in housing construction in Astana and Almaty. According to the data of the BNS ASPiR RK, during the period from January to May, 1.2 million square meters of housing were built in the capital and 938.7 thousand square meters in the southern metropolis. In comparison with last year, the growth in Astana was 35% (317.5 thousand square meters), while in Almaty — as much as 72% (392.9 thousand square meters).
This impressive growth of indicators brings the capital closer to the peak level of 2017 (1.3 million square meters), and the southern city reaches its maximum in the last 10 years. Thus, Astana and Almaty continue to actively develop and strengthen their positions as the largest cities in Kazakhstan with excellent infrastructure and attractive real estate, where everyone can find a home to their liking.
Despite statements about the need to cool the primary housing market in Astana and Almaty, there is a boom in housing construction. According to the plans for 2023, no more than 2 million square meters were planned to be commissioned in Astana (-0.4 million to the actual level of 2022), in Almaty — 1.5 million (-0.2 million). However, analysts note that if nothing changes, then this year we can expect a noticeable increase in the input areas.
This growth is taking place against the background of a shortage of engineering infrastructure in both cities. Already, residents of megacities are experiencing problems with water supply, which negatively affects the quality and comfort of life. An important step in the development of housing construction is to improve the infrastructure of cities, which will not only meet the needs of residents in comfortable housing, but also provide them with the necessary services and communications. At the same time, the growth of construction cannot be ignored, because it directly affects the economic growth of the country and the increase of its competitiveness.
During the analysis of the data of the BNS ASPiR RK, it was revealed that investments in housing construction in Astana decreased by 2.8% (6.2 billion tenge) in January-May of this year compared to the previous year. This is the first decline in the last four years, which may indicate the beginning of a cooling of the housing market and a decrease in demand for new housing in the city.
Although many hope that the situation may change, changes may not happen immediately and, perhaps, only in a few years. After all, the decline in housing prices cannot be significant under the current conditions of inflation. The second indicator showing a decline in investment in housing is a 6.5% drop in comparable prices.
However, a decrease in investment in housing can be a positive thing, as it can lead to a more stable market that ensures a more rational use of resources. As a result, this can lead to the creation of favorable offers for those who want to buy or rent housing. In addition, investors can redirect their resources to other industries, which can contribute to the diversification of the economy of the city and the country as a whole.
There is a noticeable decrease in investment activity in the city of Almaty. This phenomenon was noted by PKB experts, who noted that the decrease in investment here is even more significant than in other cities. In the first five months of this year, the local primary housing market received 215.2 billion tenge, which is 6.3% (14.4 billion tenge) less than a year earlier. If we take into account inflation, we can talk about a deeper decline, which amounted to 9.2%. This is also the first decrease in the volume of investments in January-May in the last seven years.