Photo by Turar Kazangapov
What will happen to prices and when is the best time to purchase real estate?
The construction boom in the country is on the decline. After many years of growth, experts for the first time recorded a decline in rates. And immediately by 10 percent.
Over the past year, a little more than 15 million square meters were put into operation. This is about two million less than in 2021. A disappointing scenario is also possible this year. Realtors are pessimistic. Sales have fallen recently – by an average of 20 percent. The fact is that there are few profitable mortgage programs for the population. And the preferential «7-20-25» was extended, but now it works with restrictions. No more than 25 billion tenge is allocated for each season.
«Sales have fallen. What is the reason for this? Firstly, it is the growth of the cost of building materials, inflation. And also an unaffordable rate for consumers. That is, those who earn from 200 to 300 thousand, they cannot afford a mortgage now. Small developers – they are likely to go bankrupt. Because they cannot sell in such volume as large developers who have programs with commercial banks on mortgages,» says the founder of the real estate agency Georgy Kim.
Last year, only 1.5 thousand high-rise buildings and about 36 thousand private houses were commissioned. The housing stock was most actively updated in the Pavlodar region. It is followed by East Kazakhstan and Zhetysu. The slowest construction was in Ulytau, Mangystau, Atyrau and in the north of the country.
The Association of Developers says that new profitable mortgage programs are needed like air. Now negotiations are underway with officials on this issue. But if nothing changes, there will be significantly fewer new homes.
«If you look at the statistics on the whole country, there were 10 projects in December. January already shows that only eight new projects have been launched, and in February this number increased by one residential complex. Well, if you take the whole country, then nine houses for the whole country. This suggests that the number of input objects will decrease, logically. And this suggests that the number of proposals will gradually decrease,» said Viktor Mikryukov, President of the Association of Developers of Kazakhstan.
Economists have a different opinion about this. They see only advantages in the decrease in demand for square meters for ordinary Kazakhstanis. This can stop the rise in apartment prices. Over the past few years, the cost has been rapidly and continuously going up.
«We really built a lot. Now the pace is slowing down slightly. This is also true. But builders forget to say that they are used to building a business built on benefits, in fact. They got their super profits on this. Because, according to the Bureau of National Statistics, the average margin in the country, the same profit is about 140 percent. Now, when demand is falling, and there are still a lot of offers, prices can really slow down. Or even go down a little bit,» says independent financial analyst Andrey Chebotarev.
As for the bankruptcy of small developers, experts believe that this will not have a significant impact on the construction market. In general, the inflation rate will also affect the cost of housing. Experts advise buying apartments right now – during a lull.
The author of the news tengrinews.kz